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Series III. Research, 1952-1997

Scope and Content Notes:

This series is divided into three subseries. The first subseries comprises Jeffrey's general research notes. The second subseries focuses on Jeffrey's collaboration with Carnap, largely in the form of correspondence and exchanges of drafts. The third subseries contains Jeffrey's grant applications, awards, and summary reports on concluded projects.

Subseries 1. Research Notes, 1959-1997

Scope and Content Notes:

Jeffrey's research material consists mostly of handwritten and typed documents recording his reflections on subjective probability, decision theory, Bayesianism and related topics, including comments about the works of others. Also featured is a notebook on the Richard Lewontin Lectures that Jeffrey attended while in Harvard in the Fall of 1984.

The files are arranged in chronological order starting with the earliest; undated material is placed at the end of the series in alphabetical order according to folder title.


Box 7
Folder 1 Weather Forecasting: Readings, 1906-1984
Folder 2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Notes on Linear Difference Equations, Probability, and Linear Programming, 1959 and undated
Folder 3 Early Drafts and Notes, Some in Form of Correspondence with David Miller and Richard Braithwaite, 1964-1976
Folder 3 B Early Drafts and Notes, Some in Form of Correspondence with David Miller and Richard Braithwaite, 1964-1976
Folder 4 Notes on the Interpretation of Modal and Intuitionistic Logic, 1966
Folder 5 Kinematics: Good's Ploy, 1974
Folder 6 London Notes, 1976
Folder 7 Cost-Benefit Analysis: Papers and Readings, 1977-1979
Folder 7 B Cost-Benefit Analysis: Papers and Readings, 1977-1979
Folder 8 Probabilistic Thinking, 1978
Folder 9 Why I Am Still a (Born-Again) Bayesian, 1978
Folder 10 Notes and Correspondence with Sarah Lichtenstein on 'Calibration', 1981
Folder 10 B Notes and Correspondence with Sarah Lichtenstein on 'Calibration', 1981
Folder 11 Ratifiability (Corrected), 1981
Folder 12 When Is It Best to Accept Free Information Before Deciding?, 1983
Folder 13 Richard Lewontin Lectures: Notes, Harvard Fall 1984
Folder 14 Subjective Chance, 1985
Folder 15 Paradox Lost & Bayesian Methodology, 1986
Folder 16 Notes on Carnap, Bayesianism in the '90s, Berlin Talk 'Probability Logic', and Related, 1990-1991
Folder 17 Matter of Fact and Conditionals, 1990-1991
Folder 17 B Matter of Fact and Conditionals, 1990-1991
Folder 18 Chance Kinematics (e.g. Prisoners' Dilemmas for Clones), 1992
Folder 19 Kenji's Matrix. Letter to Charles, 1994
Folder 20 Son of Born: Judgemental Probabilities in Quantum Mechanics, 1994
Folder 21 The Shooting Room, 1997
Folder 22 Wagner, 2002
Folder 23 "Two Envelope Problem",
Folder 24 Abner and Earman on Jaynes
Folder 25 Assigning Probabilities to Open and Closed Formulas (Fenstad)
Folder 26 Bell's Inequalities, Holt, Clauser, et. al.
Folder 27 Conditional Expected Utility as a Measure of Choiceworthiness
Folder 28 Conditioning
Folder 29 Constructing Reliable Indicators out of Unreliable Ones: An Example
Folder 30 Craig-Heth: An Example
Folder 31 "Data are Stable Aspects of Probability Distinctions",
Folder 32 Determinism and Free Will
Folder 33 Equivalent Random Variables
Folder 34 Exchangeability: De Finetti's Representation Theorem
Folder 35 Full & Partial Exchangeability
Folder 36 The Green Bean: Notes on Probability
Folder 37 Historical Remarks on Coherence
Folder 38 Huygens, Christiaan: Oevre completès, Vol. 14, Annotated Copy and Research Notes
Folder 39 The Latest Thinking on the Problem of Old Evidence (New Explanation)
Folder 40 Laws of Large Numbers
Folder 41 Loomis, Villegas, Dubins
Folder 42 M.C.'s Book
Folder 43 A Message From the Old Guru
Folder 44 'Mini-Aumann Theorem'
Folder 44 B 'Mini-Aumann Theorem'
Folder 45 Nash's Solution to the Bargaining Problem
Folder 46 Noncommutative Updating at the Circus & Kullback in Discrete Terms

Box 8
Folder 1 Notebook with Research Notes
Folder 2 Notes on "Abner, Domenico, Dawid,..." et. al
Folder 3 'N. Probabilities'
Folder 4 Order of Discovery~Order of Learning (Janina): Epistemology without the Given (◊Jim, 1957): A Study in Radical Physicalism
Folder 5 Probabilistic Epistemology
Folder 6 Probability and Confirmation
Folder 7 Probable Misdiagnosis by Reliable Tests
Folder 8 The Quest for Uncertainty
Folder 9 A Reinterpretation of de Finetti's Work in Terms of Carnap's Two Concepts of Probability
Folder 10 Relevant Evidence
Folder 11 Religious Belief & Scientific Knowledge
Folder 12 RCJ's Replacement of Ramsey
Folder 13 Sex Bias at Berkeley?
Folder 14 Skyrm's Version of Causal Decision Theory
Folder 15 A Standard Form for EFS's
Folder 16 Theory of Automata
Folder 17 Unidentified Research Notes
Folder 18 Utilities, Interpersonal Preference, and Aggregation
Folder 19 What the Histopathologist Saw
Folder 20 What Time Does the Next Owl Leave?

Subseries 2. Carnap Material, 1952-1991

Scope and Content Notes:

Carnap and Jeffrey had been close friends and collaborators since Jeffrey studied and received his Master's Degree under Carnap at the University of Chicago. The documents in this subseries reflect this close personal and professional relationship, mainly in form of correspondence with Carnap and his wife Ina, as well as exchanges of drafts and research notes. Carnap often included Jeffrey in his exchanges with other individuals, therefore numerous letters are carbon copies of Carnap's correspondence with others. Also featured are writings on Carnap authored by Jeffrey and others.

The folders are arranged in chronological order, followed by undated material.


Box 9
Folder 1 Carnapiana: Drafts, Notes Correspondence with or on Carnap, 1952-1973
Folder 1 B Carnapiana: Drafts, Notes Correspondence with or on Carnap, 1952-1973
Folder 2 Copies of Correspondence with Carnap regarding Jeffrey's PhD Thesis, 1957
Folder 3 Copies of Revised and Edited Drafts of Carnap's Schilpp Autobiography, 1958
Folder 4 Copies of Revised and Edited Drafts of Carnap's Schilpp Autobiography, 1958
Folder 5 Copies of Revised and Edited Drafts of Carnap's Schilpp Autobiography, 1958
Folder 6 Copies of Revised and Edited Drafts of Carnap's Schilpp Autobiography, 1958
Folder 7 Carnap's Comments on Jeffrey's Ms. "On Changing One's Betting Function" and Handwritten Notes by Carnap and Jeffrey, 1958
Folder 8 Carnap Correspondence, 1958-1981
Folder 9 Carnap Correspondence, 1958-1981
Folder 10 Carnap's Comments on Jeffrey Manuscripts and Letters by Jeffrey, 1960-1962
Folder 11 Goodman's Query: Letter by Jeffrey to Carnap, 1966
Folder 12 Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability : Jeffrey-Carnap Collaboration, Drafts and Notes, 1968-1976
Folder 12 B Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability : Jeffrey-Carnap Collaboration, Drafts and Notes, 1968-1976
Folder 13 Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability : Jeffrey-Carnap Collaboration, Drafts and Notes, 1968-1976
Folder 14 Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability : Jeffrey-Carnap Collaboration, Drafts and Notes, 1968-1976
Folder 14 B Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability : Jeffrey-Carnap Collaboration, Drafts and Notes, 1968-1976
Folder 15 Letter by Carnap to Haim Gaifman, 1970
Folder 16 Translation and Publication of Carnap's Early Essays: Correspondence with Cambridge University Press and Hanna Carnap-Thost/Arthur Benson, 1988-1991
Folder 17 Jeffrey-Carnap Correspondence: Editing Project with Open Court, 2002

Box 10
Folder 1 Carnap Material Used for Teaching: Typescripts "On Protocol Sentences" and Translation of Carnap's "'ber Protokolls'tze", undated
Folder 2 "Carnap and His Friends: The Career of Logical Positivism", Phil 531
Folder 3 Copies of Carnap Articles "Über Protokollsätze", and "Truth and Confirmation"

Subseries 3. Grant Proposals and Projects, 1960-1993

Scope and Content Notes:

This series contains Jeffrey's grant applications, project reports, and related correspondence and paperwork. Included is a project proposal by Hempel and a grant evaluation by Jeffrey of a proposal by Max Black.

Folder 4 NSF Project Proposals, 1960-1963
Folder 05-06 AFOSR (Air Force Office of Scientific Research) Grants & Contracts, 1960-1967
Folder 7 ACLS Research Proposal: Logical Foundations of Bayesian Decision Theory, 1968
Folder 8 NSF Project Proposal "Collaborative Research on Bayesian Theory", 1968
Folder 9 NSF Project Proposal: Objective & Intersubjective Considerations in Decision Theory, 1968
Folder 10 NSF Project Proposal & Report: Objective & Intersubjective Considerations in Decision Theory, 1968-1969
Folder 11 NSF Panel, 1968-1978
Folder 12 Guggenheim Proposal: Logical Foundations of Bayesian Decision Theory, 1969
Folder 13 NSF Project Proposal: Extensions of a Theory of Preference under Uncertainty, 1972
Folder 14 NSF Project Proposal "Carnap's Inductive Logic", 1972-1974
Folder 15 NSF Jeffrey's Evaluation of Project Proposal by Max Black, 1974-1975
Folder 16 NEH Grant, 1975-1976
Folder 17-18 NSF Project Proposal "Causality & Decision", 1978-1983

Box 11
Folder 1 NSF Grant Proposal by C.G. Hempel, "Problems of Empiricism: Analytic and Pragmatist Perspectives", 1980
Folder 2 NSF Project Proposal "Probabilistic Epistemology", 1981-1987
Folder 3 NSF Project Proposal "Bruno de Finetti's 'Probabilismo'", 1987
Folder 4 NSF Project Proposal, "Medical Probabilism; an Investigation of Expert Human Systems", 1988
Folder 5 NSF Project Proposal, "Probabilizing Pathology, an Investigation of Expert Human Systems", 1988
Folder 6 Probabilizing Pathology, Summary of Completed Project, 1990
Folder 7 NSF Grant Award for "Collaborative Research on Probability Conditionals", 1991
Folder 08-09 NSF Project Proposal, "Constructivism after Carnap (Revised)", 1992-1993