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Subseries 1. Manuscript Drafts, 1952-2002

Scope and Content Notes:

This subseries features Jeffrey's manuscripts, which often include communications and comments by others since Jeffrey often shared his writings to seek critical review and feedback.

The folders are arranged chronologically, followed by undated material, which is arranged alphabetically according to title.


Box 12
Folder 1 "On the Explication of Causal Conditionals", Master Thesis, University of Chicago, 1952
Folder 2 "Epistemology Without the Given: A Study in Radical Physicalism", PhD Thesis, 1st Draft, 1956
Folder 3 "Contributions to the Theory of Inductive Probability", PhD Thesis, w/ Carnap Correspondence, Princeton, 1957
Folder 4 "On Changing One's Betting Function: Probability Kinematics", 1958
Folder 5 "Automata: Finite Recursion, Computer Logic, et al.", 1958-1961
Folder 6 "Some Recent Simplifications of the Theory of Finite Automata", MIT Technical Report, 1959
Folder 7 "On the Paradox of Ideal Evidence", (Popper), 1959

Box 13
Folder 1 "Betting, Learning, and Confirming Generalizations", 1960
Folder 2 "De Finetti's Representation Theorem", Second Draft, 1960
Folder 3 "Studies in Inductive Logic & Probability Vol. II", Correspondence & Notes, 1960-1980
Folder 4 "Toward a Unified Theory of Probability and Desirability", 1962
Folder 5 "Counterfactuals as Explanations", 1963 and undated
Folder 6 "Preference Between Propositions (Short)", Stanford University, 1963
Folder 7 Writings on Random Propositions, 1963-1971 and undated
Folder 8 "Preference-Preserving Utility Transformations" and Corrections, 1963-1964
Folder 9 "Preference, Credence, and Utility", Various Drafts, 1964-1965
Folder 10 "Preference, Credence, and Utility", Various Drafts, 1964-1965
Folder 11 "Mises Redux", and Writings by Others on 'Randomness,' 1966-1974
Folder 12 "The Logic of Decision": Reviews & Correspondence, 1966-1990
Folder 13 "Notes on the Logic of Decision", 1967
Folder 14 "Bride of Udolpho Meets Button Man", (Popper), 1967

Box 14
Folder 1 "Interpersonal Comparison of Utilities/Preferences", 1968 and undated
Folder 2 "Two Practical Paradoxes", "Antithetic of Practical Reason?" and The Prisoner's Dilemma", 1968 and undated
Folder 3 "Causality in the Logic of Decision", and "Preference & Causality", 1969
Folder 4 Harsanyi on Utility Summation, 1969
Folder 5 "The New Utilitarianism", Various Drafts, 1970
Folder 6 "Event-Valued Random Variables = Propositional Functions of Possible Worlds", 1971
Folder 7 Notes on Decision Theory, 1971 and undated
Folder 8 "Remarks on Interpersonal Utility Theory", 1971
Folder 9 Utilitarianism Revisited (Larger Version of APA Symposium Paper), 1971
Folder 10 "Studies in Inductive Logic", Vol. 2, 1971-1973
Folder 11 "The Logic of Decision", 2nd Edition, 1971-1989
Folder 11 B "The Logic of Decision", 2nd Edition, 1971-1989
Folder 12 "Preference and Modality", 1st Draft, 1972
Folder 13 Review by Jeffrey of "On the Coherence of Higher-Order Probabilities" by Soshichi Uchii, 1974 and undated
Folder 13 B Review by Jeffrey of "On the Coherence of Higher-Order Probabilities" by Soshichi Uchii, 1974 and undated
Folder 14 "David Says", 1975
Folder 15 "State Bayesianism", Chelsea College, 1975
Folder 16 "Harsanyi's Theorem", 1975-1984
Folder 17 "On Inductive Logic", 1976
Folder 18 "Axiomatizing the Logic of Decision", 1976
Folder 19 "Savage's Omelet", 1976-1977
Folder 19 B "Savage's Omelet", 1976-1977
Folder 20 "Conditionals as Proposition-Valued Functions of Possible Worlds", 1977
Folder 21 "Introductory Logic: Notes and Problems", 1978
Folder 22 "Skyrms on Probability Kinematics via Second-Order Probabilities", 1978
Folder 23 "Why Look Before You Leap?" 1978
Folder 24 "Choice, Chance, & Credence", Draft and Correspondence, 1978-1980

Box 15
Folder 1 Formal Logic: Its Scope and Limits, 3rd Edition, 1978-1988
Folder 1 B Formal Logic: Its Scope and Limits, 3rd Edition, 1978-1988
Folder 2 Formal Logic: Its Scope and Limits, 3rd Edition, 1978-1988
Folder 3 "Cohen's Nativism", 1981
Folder 4 "Ratifiability (Corrected)", 1981
Folder 5 "Preference and Choiceworthiness", 1981
Folder 6 "Bayesianism with a Human Face", 1982-1990
Folder 6 B "Bayesianism with a Human Face", 1982-1990
Folder 7 "The Sure Thing Principle", (Philosophy of Science Association): Drafts, Notes, Readings, 1982-1984
Folder 7 B "The Sure Thing Principle", (Philosophy of Science Association): Drafts, Notes, Readings, 1982-1984
Folder 8 "The Impossibility of Inductive Probability", Letters to the Editor of Nature by Jeffrey, Levi, Good, Popper et al, 1984
Folder 9 "Probability and the Logic of Confirmation", Paper in Honor of Carl G. Hempel's Retirement from Univ. of Pittsburgh, 1985
Folder 10 "Indefinite Probability Judgment: A Reply to Levi", Drafts and Correspondence, 1986
Folder 10 B "Indefinite Probability Judgment: A Reply to Levi", Drafts and Correspondence, 1986
Folder 11 "Probabilism and Induction", 1986
Folder 12 "Probability and the Art of Judgment", 1986
Folder 13 "Biting the Bayesian Bullet: Zeckhauser's Problem", 1986-1988
Folder 13 B "Biting the Bayesian Bullet: Zeckhauser's Problem", 1986-1988
Folder 14 "How to Probabilize a Newcomb Problem", 1987-1991
Folder 15 "De Finetti's Radical Probabilism", 1988

Box 16
Folder 1 "Conditionals", 1990
Folder 2 "Thrilled by the Facts", Article on F.P. Ramsey for the Times Literary Supplement, 1991
Folder 3 "UCLA: The Experiential Element in Knowledge", 1991
Folder 4 "Chance Kinematics", 1992
Folder 5 "The Kinematics of Preferential Choice", 1992
Folder 6 "Newcomb Kinematics", 1992
Folder 7 "Probability Kinematics and Causality", 1992
Folder 8 "A Skeleton Key to JM Joyce's Axtiomatic Foundations of Bayesian Decision Theory, 1992
Folder 9 Formal Logic: Its Scope & Limits: Reviews, Comments, and Revisions for 4th Edition, 1992-1997

Box 17
Folder 1 "Causality in the Logic of Decision (Castiglioncello)", 1993
Folder 2 "Causality in the Logic of Decision", 1993-1994
Folder 3 "Judgemental Probability Dynamics: Formation, Transformation, Reparation", 1993
Folder 4 Preference Kinematics, 1993
Folder 5 "Probability Reparation: The Problem of New Explanation", 1993-1995
Folder 6 "Hempel", Entry for Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 1993-1994
Folder 7 "Probabilistic Thinking", with E-mail to Peter Momtchiloff, 1993-2002
Folder 8 "Probabilistic Thinking", 1994-1995
Folder 9 "Son of Born: Judgemental Probabilities in Quantum Mechanics", 1994
Folder 10 "Bayes Ways: A Probability Primer", 1995
Folder 11 Jeffrey's Review of "A Vindication of Probabilistic Foundationalism", by Unknown Author for Philosophical Studies, 1995
Folder 12 Formal Logic: Its Scope and Limits, Revisions for 4th Edition, 1995-1997
Folder 13 "Transformations of Belief", Drafts, 1995-1999
Folder 14 "Probabilistic Epistemology", 1995-2000
Folder 15 "The Dreaded Problem of New Explanation, a.k.a Old Evidence" (Chapter 5), 1996
Folder 16 "Logicism 2000: A Mini-Manifesto", 1996
Folder 17 "What it Takes to be a Group: Pareto vs. Diversity", w/ Matthias Hild and Mathias Risse, 1997
Folder 18 "An Appreciation of Richard Bradley's Decision Theory with Conditionals, 1998 (Fragment)
Folder 19 "Aumann's 'No Agreement' Theorem Generalized", 1998
Folder 20 "Bumblebee Attitudes", 1998

Box 18
Folder 1 "Neo-Bayesian Reflections on 'Nature Is Only There Once,' and Other Neo-Positivist Slogans", 1998
Folder 2 "Problems of Preference Aggregation", together w/ Matthias Hild and Mathias Risse, 1998
Folder 3 "Bumblebee Attitudes", 1999
Folder 4 "Decision-Theoretic Aggregation'Introduction and Survey", 1999
Folder 5 "Probabilistic Judgement", 1999
Folder 6 "Personal Probabilities for Quantum Mechanics", (Ischia), 1999-2001
Folder 7 "Some Solved Problems of Probabilism", 2000
Folder 8 "Epistemology Probabilized", 2001
Folder 9 Subjective Probability: The Real Thing", 2001-2002
Folder 10 "Flipping and Ex post Aggregation", with Mathias Hild and Mathias Risse, 2002
Folder 11 "Logicism Lite", incl. correspondence with Penelope Maddy, 2002
Folder 11 B "Logicism Lite", incl. correspondence with Penelope Maddy, 2002
Folder 12 "Noncoöperative Games & Individual Decisions", 2002
Folder 13 "Probabilism & Induction", (Chapter 5), 2002
Folder 14 "2nd Order Logic Unformizable"
Folder 15 "Allais's Qualms About Expected Utility"
Folder 16 "Barycentric Probability Display Program"
Folder 17 "Bernoullian Utility: The St. Petersburg Paradox", (Chapter 2)
Folder 18 "Bridgman's Operational Analysis"
Folder 19 "Carnap's Minisystems of 'Logical Probability'"
Folder 20 "Carnap's 'Model A' System of Inductive Logic, Based on c*"
Folder 21 "Choice and Preference"
Folder 22 "Choosing", Draft of Chapter 6 of Subjective Probability: The Real Thing.
Folder 23 "Comparative Probability" (Chapter 5)
Folder 24 "Conditioning", Draft of Chapter 3, Subjective Probability: The Real Thing.
Folder 25 "Constructivism After Carnap: Project Description"
Folder 26 "The Covering Law Model of Explanation"
Folder 27 "Decision-Making", (Chapter 6)
Folder 28 "Decision Theory and Human Action"

Box 19
Folder 1 "Decision Theory Notes (Penn)"
Folder 2 "De Finetti's Account of Subjective Probability: Two Versions"
Folder 3 "Dopo Carnap": Italian Translation of Jeffrey's "After Carnap"
Folder 4 "Epistemology Without the Given: A Study in Radical Physicalism"
Folder 5 "Expectation Primer", Draft of Chapter 4, Subjective Probability: The Real Thing.
Folder 6 "If", City College of New York
Folder 7 "Interpersonal Comparison of Utilities", ("Distributive Justice as a Problem for Utilitarianism")
Folder 8 "The Kinematics of Decision"
Folder 9 "The Limits of Formal Methods (Part Three)"
Folder 10 "The Logic of Decision"
Folder 11 "The Logic of Decision Revised"
Folder 12 "The Logic of Preference"
Folder 13 "Logical Positivism", Encyclopedia Entry
Folder 14 "Notes on the Theory of Automata", (City College of New York)
Folder 15 "An Objectivist's Guide to Subjective Chance"
Folder 16 "Physicalism without the Given", Notes and Drafts
Folder 17 "Plato: The Third Man", Revised Edition, for Prof. Ackrill's Seminar
Folder 18 "Postcript: How to Think"
Folder 19 "Preference & Choiceworthiness (Chapter 12)
Folder 20 "Probabilities of Acts: Defense of a Unified Ontology for Decision Theory"
Folder 21 "Probability Dynamics and Causality"
Folder 22 "Probability Dynamics; Collaboration", Draft of Chapter 3, Subjective Probability: The Real Thing.
Folder 23 "Probability, Induction, and Decision Theory", Section 7&8
Folder 24 "Probability Logic", Chapter 2 (Summary)
Folder 25 "Probabilizing"
Folder 26 "Proposition-Valued Random Variables: A Progress Report"
Folder 27 "Random Propositions"
Folder 28 "Ratificationism Reconsidered"
Folder 29 Review of Van McGee's "Conditional Probabilities and Compounds of Conditionals"
Folder 30 Review of Frank Plympton Ramsey: Notes on Philosophy, Probability, and Mathematics by Maria Carla Galavotti

Box 20
Folder 1 "Rough Probabilism"
Folder 2 "Second-Order Logic Unformalizable"
Folder 3 "Self-Reference"
Folder 4 "Smokers' Dilemmas"
Folder 5 "Son of Savage: Consequences as Propositions", and "Ramsey, Son of Savage"
Folder 6 "Subjective Frequentism"
Folder 7 "Subjective Probability, The Real Thing: Decision", (Chapter 7)
Folder 8 "Take Back the Day! Jon Dorling's Bayesian Solution of the Duhem Problem"
Folder 9 "Toward a Reformulation of Ramsey's Theory of Preference"
Folder 10 "Unknown Probabilities"
Folder 11 "Updating on Statistics", Draft of Chapter 5, Subjective Probability: The Real Thing.
Folder 12 "Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Theory" (Chapter 3) and "Comparative Probability" (Chapter 5)
Folder 13 "What is Probability?" and "Note on Unique Decipherability", by E.T. Jaynes
Folder 14 "Wrapping It Up"
Folder 15 Annotated Published Writings by Jeffrey