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Series IV. Writings, Lectures, and Publications, 1952-2002

Scope and Content Notes:

This series is divided into three subseries consisting of manuscript drafts, lecture notes and conferences, and editorial work. The manuscript drafts feature Jeffrey's writings at various stages of their development, ranging from early outlines to pre-publication galley proofs. The second subseries mainly comprises lecture notes and transparencies used in presentations. The third subseries holds material produced during Jeffrey's editorial role in publishing Hempel's Selected Philosophical Essays.

Subseries 1. Manuscript Drafts, 1952-2002

Scope and Content Notes:

This subseries features Jeffrey's manuscripts, which often include communications and comments by others since Jeffrey often shared his writings to seek critical review and feedback.

The folders are arranged chronologically, followed by undated material, which is arranged alphabetically according to title.


Box 12
Folder 1 "On the Explication of Causal Conditionals", Master Thesis, University of Chicago, 1952
Folder 2 "Epistemology Without the Given: A Study in Radical Physicalism", PhD Thesis, 1st Draft, 1956
Folder 3 "Contributions to the Theory of Inductive Probability", PhD Thesis, w/ Carnap Correspondence, Princeton, 1957
Folder 4 "On Changing One's Betting Function: Probability Kinematics", 1958
Folder 5 "Automata: Finite Recursion, Computer Logic, et al.", 1958-1961
Folder 6 "Some Recent Simplifications of the Theory of Finite Automata", MIT Technical Report, 1959
Folder 7 "On the Paradox of Ideal Evidence", (Popper), 1959

Box 13
Folder 1 "Betting, Learning, and Confirming Generalizations", 1960
Folder 2 "De Finetti's Representation Theorem", Second Draft, 1960
Folder 3 "Studies in Inductive Logic & Probability Vol. II", Correspondence & Notes, 1960-1980
Folder 4 "Toward a Unified Theory of Probability and Desirability", 1962
Folder 5 "Counterfactuals as Explanations", 1963 and undated
Folder 6 "Preference Between Propositions (Short)", Stanford University, 1963
Folder 7 Writings on Random Propositions, 1963-1971 and undated
Folder 8 "Preference-Preserving Utility Transformations" and Corrections, 1963-1964
Folder 9 "Preference, Credence, and Utility", Various Drafts, 1964-1965
Folder 10 "Preference, Credence, and Utility", Various Drafts, 1964-1965
Folder 11 "Mises Redux", and Writings by Others on 'Randomness,' 1966-1974
Folder 12 "The Logic of Decision": Reviews & Correspondence, 1966-1990
Folder 13 "Notes on the Logic of Decision", 1967
Folder 14 "Bride of Udolpho Meets Button Man", (Popper), 1967

Box 14
Folder 1 "Interpersonal Comparison of Utilities/Preferences", 1968 and undated
Folder 2 "Two Practical Paradoxes", "Antithetic of Practical Reason?" and The Prisoner's Dilemma", 1968 and undated
Folder 3 "Causality in the Logic of Decision", and "Preference & Causality", 1969
Folder 4 Harsanyi on Utility Summation, 1969
Folder 5 "The New Utilitarianism", Various Drafts, 1970
Folder 6 "Event-Valued Random Variables = Propositional Functions of Possible Worlds", 1971
Folder 7 Notes on Decision Theory, 1971 and undated
Folder 8 "Remarks on Interpersonal Utility Theory", 1971
Folder 9 Utilitarianism Revisited (Larger Version of APA Symposium Paper), 1971
Folder 10 "Studies in Inductive Logic", Vol. 2, 1971-1973
Folder 11 "The Logic of Decision", 2nd Edition, 1971-1989
Folder 11 B "The Logic of Decision", 2nd Edition, 1971-1989
Folder 12 "Preference and Modality", 1st Draft, 1972
Folder 13 Review by Jeffrey of "On the Coherence of Higher-Order Probabilities" by Soshichi Uchii, 1974 and undated
Folder 13 B Review by Jeffrey of "On the Coherence of Higher-Order Probabilities" by Soshichi Uchii, 1974 and undated
Folder 14 "David Says", 1975
Folder 15 "State Bayesianism", Chelsea College, 1975
Folder 16 "Harsanyi's Theorem", 1975-1984
Folder 17 "On Inductive Logic", 1976
Folder 18 "Axiomatizing the Logic of Decision", 1976
Folder 19 "Savage's Omelet", 1976-1977
Folder 19 B "Savage's Omelet", 1976-1977
Folder 20 "Conditionals as Proposition-Valued Functions of Possible Worlds", 1977
Folder 21 "Introductory Logic: Notes and Problems", 1978
Folder 22 "Skyrms on Probability Kinematics via Second-Order Probabilities", 1978
Folder 23 "Why Look Before You Leap?" 1978
Folder 24 "Choice, Chance, & Credence", Draft and Correspondence, 1978-1980

Box 15
Folder 1 Formal Logic: Its Scope and Limits, 3rd Edition, 1978-1988
Folder 1 B Formal Logic: Its Scope and Limits, 3rd Edition, 1978-1988
Folder 2 Formal Logic: Its Scope and Limits, 3rd Edition, 1978-1988
Folder 3 "Cohen's Nativism", 1981
Folder 4 "Ratifiability (Corrected)", 1981
Folder 5 "Preference and Choiceworthiness", 1981
Folder 6 "Bayesianism with a Human Face", 1982-1990
Folder 6 B "Bayesianism with a Human Face", 1982-1990
Folder 7 "The Sure Thing Principle", (Philosophy of Science Association): Drafts, Notes, Readings, 1982-1984
Folder 7 B "The Sure Thing Principle", (Philosophy of Science Association): Drafts, Notes, Readings, 1982-1984
Folder 8 "The Impossibility of Inductive Probability", Letters to the Editor of Nature by Jeffrey, Levi, Good, Popper et al, 1984
Folder 9 "Probability and the Logic of Confirmation", Paper in Honor of Carl G. Hempel's Retirement from Univ. of Pittsburgh, 1985
Folder 10 "Indefinite Probability Judgment: A Reply to Levi", Drafts and Correspondence, 1986
Folder 10 B "Indefinite Probability Judgment: A Reply to Levi", Drafts and Correspondence, 1986
Folder 11 "Probabilism and Induction", 1986
Folder 12 "Probability and the Art of Judgment", 1986
Folder 13 "Biting the Bayesian Bullet: Zeckhauser's Problem", 1986-1988
Folder 13 B "Biting the Bayesian Bullet: Zeckhauser's Problem", 1986-1988
Folder 14 "How to Probabilize a Newcomb Problem", 1987-1991
Folder 15 "De Finetti's Radical Probabilism", 1988

Box 16
Folder 1 "Conditionals", 1990
Folder 2 "Thrilled by the Facts", Article on F.P. Ramsey for the Times Literary Supplement, 1991
Folder 3 "UCLA: The Experiential Element in Knowledge", 1991
Folder 4 "Chance Kinematics", 1992
Folder 5 "The Kinematics of Preferential Choice", 1992
Folder 6 "Newcomb Kinematics", 1992
Folder 7 "Probability Kinematics and Causality", 1992
Folder 8 "A Skeleton Key to JM Joyce's Axtiomatic Foundations of Bayesian Decision Theory, 1992
Folder 9 Formal Logic: Its Scope & Limits: Reviews, Comments, and Revisions for 4th Edition, 1992-1997

Box 17
Folder 1 "Causality in the Logic of Decision (Castiglioncello)", 1993
Folder 2 "Causality in the Logic of Decision", 1993-1994
Folder 3 "Judgemental Probability Dynamics: Formation, Transformation, Reparation", 1993
Folder 4 Preference Kinematics, 1993
Folder 5 "Probability Reparation: The Problem of New Explanation", 1993-1995
Folder 6 "Hempel", Entry for Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 1993-1994
Folder 7 "Probabilistic Thinking", with E-mail to Peter Momtchiloff, 1993-2002
Folder 8 "Probabilistic Thinking", 1994-1995
Folder 9 "Son of Born: Judgemental Probabilities in Quantum Mechanics", 1994
Folder 10 "Bayes Ways: A Probability Primer", 1995
Folder 11 Jeffrey's Review of "A Vindication of Probabilistic Foundationalism", by Unknown Author for Philosophical Studies, 1995
Folder 12 Formal Logic: Its Scope and Limits, Revisions for 4th Edition, 1995-1997
Folder 13 "Transformations of Belief", Drafts, 1995-1999
Folder 14 "Probabilistic Epistemology", 1995-2000
Folder 15 "The Dreaded Problem of New Explanation, a.k.a Old Evidence" (Chapter 5), 1996
Folder 16 "Logicism 2000: A Mini-Manifesto", 1996
Folder 17 "What it Takes to be a Group: Pareto vs. Diversity", w/ Matthias Hild and Mathias Risse, 1997
Folder 18 "An Appreciation of Richard Bradley's Decision Theory with Conditionals, 1998 (Fragment)
Folder 19 "Aumann's 'No Agreement' Theorem Generalized", 1998
Folder 20 "Bumblebee Attitudes", 1998

Box 18
Folder 1 "Neo-Bayesian Reflections on 'Nature Is Only There Once,' and Other Neo-Positivist Slogans", 1998
Folder 2 "Problems of Preference Aggregation", together w/ Matthias Hild and Mathias Risse, 1998
Folder 3 "Bumblebee Attitudes", 1999
Folder 4 "Decision-Theoretic Aggregation'Introduction and Survey", 1999
Folder 5 "Probabilistic Judgement", 1999
Folder 6 "Personal Probabilities for Quantum Mechanics", (Ischia), 1999-2001
Folder 7 "Some Solved Problems of Probabilism", 2000
Folder 8 "Epistemology Probabilized", 2001
Folder 9 Subjective Probability: The Real Thing", 2001-2002
Folder 10 "Flipping and Ex post Aggregation", with Mathias Hild and Mathias Risse, 2002
Folder 11 "Logicism Lite", incl. correspondence with Penelope Maddy, 2002
Folder 11 B "Logicism Lite", incl. correspondence with Penelope Maddy, 2002
Folder 12 "Noncoöperative Games & Individual Decisions", 2002
Folder 13 "Probabilism & Induction", (Chapter 5), 2002
Folder 14 "2nd Order Logic Unformizable"
Folder 15 "Allais's Qualms About Expected Utility"
Folder 16 "Barycentric Probability Display Program"
Folder 17 "Bernoullian Utility: The St. Petersburg Paradox", (Chapter 2)
Folder 18 "Bridgman's Operational Analysis"
Folder 19 "Carnap's Minisystems of 'Logical Probability'"
Folder 20 "Carnap's 'Model A' System of Inductive Logic, Based on c*"
Folder 21 "Choice and Preference"
Folder 22 "Choosing", Draft of Chapter 6 of Subjective Probability: The Real Thing.
Folder 23 "Comparative Probability" (Chapter 5)
Folder 24 "Conditioning", Draft of Chapter 3, Subjective Probability: The Real Thing.
Folder 25 "Constructivism After Carnap: Project Description"
Folder 26 "The Covering Law Model of Explanation"
Folder 27 "Decision-Making", (Chapter 6)
Folder 28 "Decision Theory and Human Action"

Box 19
Folder 1 "Decision Theory Notes (Penn)"
Folder 2 "De Finetti's Account of Subjective Probability: Two Versions"
Folder 3 "Dopo Carnap": Italian Translation of Jeffrey's "After Carnap"
Folder 4 "Epistemology Without the Given: A Study in Radical Physicalism"
Folder 5 "Expectation Primer", Draft of Chapter 4, Subjective Probability: The Real Thing.
Folder 6 "If", City College of New York
Folder 7 "Interpersonal Comparison of Utilities", ("Distributive Justice as a Problem for Utilitarianism")
Folder 8 "The Kinematics of Decision"
Folder 9 "The Limits of Formal Methods (Part Three)"
Folder 10 "The Logic of Decision"
Folder 11 "The Logic of Decision Revised"
Folder 12 "The Logic of Preference"
Folder 13 "Logical Positivism", Encyclopedia Entry
Folder 14 "Notes on the Theory of Automata", (City College of New York)
Folder 15 "An Objectivist's Guide to Subjective Chance"
Folder 16 "Physicalism without the Given", Notes and Drafts
Folder 17 "Plato: The Third Man", Revised Edition, for Prof. Ackrill's Seminar
Folder 18 "Postcript: How to Think"
Folder 19 "Preference & Choiceworthiness (Chapter 12)
Folder 20 "Probabilities of Acts: Defense of a Unified Ontology for Decision Theory"
Folder 21 "Probability Dynamics and Causality"
Folder 22 "Probability Dynamics; Collaboration", Draft of Chapter 3, Subjective Probability: The Real Thing.
Folder 23 "Probability, Induction, and Decision Theory", Section 7&8
Folder 24 "Probability Logic", Chapter 2 (Summary)
Folder 25 "Probabilizing"
Folder 26 "Proposition-Valued Random Variables: A Progress Report"
Folder 27 "Random Propositions"
Folder 28 "Ratificationism Reconsidered"
Folder 29 Review of Van McGee's "Conditional Probabilities and Compounds of Conditionals"
Folder 30 Review of Frank Plympton Ramsey: Notes on Philosophy, Probability, and Mathematics by Maria Carla Galavotti

Box 20
Folder 1 "Rough Probabilism"
Folder 2 "Second-Order Logic Unformalizable"
Folder 3 "Self-Reference"
Folder 4 "Smokers' Dilemmas"
Folder 5 "Son of Savage: Consequences as Propositions", and "Ramsey, Son of Savage"
Folder 6 "Subjective Frequentism"
Folder 7 "Subjective Probability, The Real Thing: Decision", (Chapter 7)
Folder 8 "Take Back the Day! Jon Dorling's Bayesian Solution of the Duhem Problem"
Folder 9 "Toward a Reformulation of Ramsey's Theory of Preference"
Folder 10 "Unknown Probabilities"
Folder 11 "Updating on Statistics", Draft of Chapter 5, Subjective Probability: The Real Thing.
Folder 12 "Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Theory" (Chapter 3) and "Comparative Probability" (Chapter 5)
Folder 13 "What is Probability?" and "Note on Unique Decipherability", by E.T. Jaynes
Folder 14 "Wrapping It Up"
Folder 15 Annotated Published Writings by Jeffrey

Subseries 2. Lecture Notes and Conferences, 1964-2001

Scope and Content Notes:

The majority of the material consists of Jeffrey's lecture notes and transparencies. Some folders also contain material relating to his conference preparations and attendance such as correspondence, programs, abstracts, and travel arrangements.

The folders are arranged chronologically, followed by undated material, which is arranged alphabetically according to lecture title or conference name.

Folder 16 "If", APA Meeting, Boston, 1964
Folder 17 International Congress for Logic, Methodology, and Philosophy of Science, Jerusalem: Program and Abstracts, 1964
Folder 18 "The Prisoner's Dilemma", Princeton University, 1968
Folder 19 International Congress of Logic, Methodology, and Philosophy of Science, London, Ontario, Canada, 1975
Folder 20 "Subjective Probability": Talk for Statistics Seminar, London University, 1976
Folder 21 "Coming True", Lecture for Conference on the Philosophy of Language & Logic, University of Warwick, March 1976
Folder 22 IV Simposio Latino-Americano de Logica Matematica (IV SLAM): Motion for Withdrawal ASL Sponsorship, 1977-1978
Folder 23 7th International Congress of Logic, Methodology, and Philosophy of Science, Salzburg, Austria 1983, 1980-1983
Folder 24 International Conference on the Foundations of Probability & Statistics, Luino, Italy, 1981-1982
Folder 25 "Carnap on Artificial Languages and Artificial Lives", Boston Colloquium for the Philosophy of Science and "Carnap's Robots", Center for the Philosophy of Science, Pittsburgh, 1982-1985

Box 21
Folder 1 "Judgmental Probability and Objective Chance", Siena Conference, 1984
Folder 2 Conference on "Exchangeability and Partial Exchangeability", Purdue University, 1984
Folder 3 "From Logical Probability to Probability Logic", Bar-Hillel Symposium, Boston University, 1985
Folder 4 "Probability & Induction", 1985
Folder 5 "Alias Smith and Jones: The Testimony of the Senses", Essler Conference, Frankfurt, May 1986, 1885-1987
Folder 6 Juror Decision Making Conference, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, 1986
Folder 7 Frankfurt and Bologna Lectures, 1986
Folder 8 Princeton Colloquium Speakers, 1986-1987
Folder 9 Lecture Programs and Announcements, Italy, 1986-1993
Folder 10 "Probabilistic Epistemology: De Finetti's 'Probabilismo' (1931)", Moscow, Aug., 1987
Folder 11 "Conditionals", Dunwalke Conference, Lecture Draft and Transparencies, 1989
Folder 12 Joint US-Italian Workshop on Knowledge, Belief, and Strategic Interaction, Castiglioncello Italy, 1991
Folder 13 Salamanca Conference "Ciencia y Conocimiento", Spain, Programs and Correspondence, 1991
Folder 14 Lectures in Genova and Turin, Italy, 1993
Folder 15 8th International Congress of Logic, Methodology, & Philosophy of Science, Florence, August 1995, 1993-1995
Folder 16 "Decision Kinematics", IEA Conference on Rationality in Economics, Turin, and Revised, 1993-1996
Folder 17 Luino III & Trieste Conferences 1995, 1994-1995
Folder 18 IEA Turin Conference: The Rational Foundations of Economic Behaviour, 1995
Folder 19 International Conference: The Notion of Event in Probabilistic Epistemology, Trieste, Italy, 1996
Folder 20 "What It Takes to be a Group: Pareto vs. Diversity", Caen, France, 1997
Folder 21 "I Was a Teenage Logical Positivist (Now a Septuagenarian Radical Probabilist)", PSA Presidential Address 1998, 1998-1999
Folder 22 "The Career of Logical Empiricism", History of Science Society, Pittsburgh, 1999
Folder 23 Probabilistic States of Mind: IPMU 8th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge Based Systems, Madrid 2000, 1999-2000
Folder 24 "After Logical Empiricism", 2000
Folder 25 "I. After Logical Empiricism, II. Radical Probabilism", Petrus Hispanus Lectures, Lisbon, 2000-2001

Box 22
Folder 1 "Empiricism Probabilized", Theoretical Aspects of Rationality and Knowledge (TARK) Lecture, 2001
Folder 2 "From Logical Empiricism to Radical Probabilism", Program and Abstract for Hägerström Lecture, Uppsala University, Schweden, 2001
Folder 3 "Joyce on Choice" & Reply by Jim Joyce, Central Division APA Meeting, Minneapolis, 2001
Folder 4 "Judgmental Probabilities, Conditional and Unconditional", ISBA, Laguna Beach, 2001
Folder 5 "Probabilistic Epistemology--or--Après épistémologie", Carnegie Mellon University, 05-25-02, 2002
Folder 6 Carnegie Mellon University Talks "Probability Dynamics" and "Logicism Lite", Lecture Notes and Correspondence, 2002
Folder 7 "Adoptive (Constructive) Probability", et al., Transparencies, Rome
Folder 8 "After Logicism", Transparancies
Folder 9 "Agreeing to Disagree: Harsanyi & Aumann", w/ Matthias Hild & Mathias Risse, Transparencies
Folder 10 "Conditional Probability", Transparencies
Folder 11 "Epistemology Re-Naturalized", Transparancies (Bees)
Folder 12 "Evolutionary Decision Theory", SF Talk
Folder 13 "Exchangeability & Generalized Conditioning", & "Mini-Aumann Theorem", Transparencies
Folder 14 "Fallacies re. Radical Probabilism", Transparencies for Bologna/Lisbon Lectures
Folder 15 "Irrationality and the Bayesian Enlightenment", Announcement of Lecture at the University of Bristol
Folder 16 "Jon Dorling's Solution of the Duhem-Quine Problem", Transparencies
Folder 17 "Judgemental Probability", Jerusalem, Transparencies
Folder 18 "Logical Probability (Objective Bayesianism)", Transparencies
Folder 19 "Probabilistic Epistemology", Transparencies
Folder 20 "Probabilities of Preference Aggregation", Cal Tech Talk, Transparencies
Folder 21 "Probability Dynamics and Causality", Transparencies
Folder 22 "Probability Kinematics", Transparencies
Folder 23 "Prospects for Pure Pragmatism", Transparencies
Folder 24 "Radical Probabilism, et al.", Transparencies
Folder 25 "Savage on the Cheap", Transparencies
Folder 26 "The Theory of Knowledge", First Lecture
Folder 27 "What It Takes to be a Group: Pareto vs. Diversity", Transparencies
Folder 28 Unidentified Lecture Notes and Transparencies

Subseries 3. Editorial Work: Hempel's Selected Philosophical Essays, 1934-2000

Scope and Content Notes:

Jeffrey functioned as the editor of Hempel's Selected Philosophical Essays. Gathered here are documents produced during this process, mostly in form of different production stages of the publication and copies of Hempel's essays considered for publication.

This subseries is divided into three sections. Sections 1 and 2 group material according to the format of the publication: Preprint Versions and Galley Proofs. The third section comprises the remaining material related to the editorial process.

Section: Preprint Versions

Section: Pre-print versions


Box 23
Folder 1 Chapters 4, 8, 13, 15,19,20, 22, 23, 1996
Folder 2 Chapter 15, 1996
Folder 3 Chapters 10, 14, 21, 1996
Folder 4 Chapters 10, 17,19, 21, 1996
Folder 5 Chapters 11, 12, 15, 1996
Folder 6 Chapter 11 and English Translation of Hempel's PhD Thesis, 1996
Folder 7 Chapter 23 and Copies of Hempel's Writings, 1996
Folder 8 Chapter 1, Copies of Hempel's Writings, and Correspondence, 1996-1997

Box 24
Folder 1 Chapter 6 and English Translation of Hempel's PhD Thesis, 1996-1998
Folder 2 Chapters 9, 11, 12, 14, 16 and Notes and Correspondence, 1996-1998
Folder 3 Chapters 8, 9, 12, English Translation of Hempel's PhD Thesis, and Copies of Hempel's Writings, 1996-1998
Folder 4 Introduction and Related Transparencies, 1998
Folder 5 Chapters 1, 5, 13, and Copies of Hempel's Writings, 1996-1999
Folder 6 Chapters 1-16, 1998
Folder 7 Chapters 1-16 and Correspondence, 1998-1999

Box 25
Folder 1 Chapters 1-6, 1998
Folder 2 Chapters 7-11, 1998
Folder 3 Chapters 12-15, 1998

Section: Galley Proofs

Folder 4 Chapters 1-5, 1999
Folder 5 Chapters 6-8, 1999
Folder 6 Chapters 9-12, 1999
Folder 7 Chapters 13-16, 1999
Folder 8 Chapters Hempel's Publication and Index, 1999

Section: Related Material to Edition of Selected Philosophical Essays

Folder 9 Entry on Hempel by Jeffrey for Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy, and Correspondence, 1996
Folder 10 Cambridge University Press Marketing for Hempel's Selected Philosophical Essays, 2000
Folder 11 Hempel-Neurath Correspondence: Copies and Excerpts, 1934-1935
Folder 12 Copy of Hempel's Published PhD Thesis with Annotations by Jeffrey
Folder 13 Copies of Hempel's Writings, 1937-1981
Folder 14 Copy of Hempel's "Postcript 1976: More Recent Ideas on the Problem of Statistical Explanation."

Box 26
Folder 1 Interview with Hempel by Richard Nollan with Corrections, 1982-1983
Folder 2 "Methodology of Science: Descriptive and Prescriptive Facets", Typescript of Hempel's Lecture at Tel Aviv University, 1984
Folder 3 "Hempel and the Vienna Circle", Typescript of Article by Michael Friedman
Folder 04-08 Copies of Writings by Hempel for Edition of Selected Philosophical Essays